Death trends based on autopsy data compared to the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in Brazil

The novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is responsible for thousands of deaths worldwide, especially in Brazil, currently one of the leading countries in number of infections and deaths. The beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil is uncertain due to the low number of tests done in the country. The excess number of deaths can suggest the beginning of the pandemic in this context. In this article, we used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to investigate possible excesses in the number of deaths processed by the São Paulo Autopsy Service according to different causes of deaths: all-cause, cardiovascular, and pulmonary causes. We calculated the expected number of deaths using data from 2019 to 2020 (n=17,011), and investigated different seasonal patterns using harmonic dynamic regression with Fourier terms with residuals modeled by an ARIMA method. We did not find any abnormalities in the predicted number of deaths and the real values in the first months of 2020. We found an increase in the number of deaths only by March 20, 2020, right after the first COVID-19 confirmed case in the city of São Paulo, which occurred on March 16, 2020.

Dial organic carbon fluctuations in a mangrove tidal creek in Sepetiba bay, Southeast Brazil

The carbon (C) concentration and flux, as dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate organic carbon (POC) and macrodetritus (MD), were quantified through 4 tidal cycles in a mangrove tidal creek in Southeastern Brazil. DOC was the major fraction of the total C concentration, accounting for 68 and 61 percent of the total C concentration during ebb and flood periods respectively. Concentrations of DOC (Ebb = 3,41 ± 0,57 mgC.L-1 and Flood = 3,55 ± 0,76 mgC.L-1) and POC (Ebb = 1,73 ± 0,99 mgC.L-1 and Flood = 1,28 ± 0,45 mgC.L-1) were relatively similar during the four tidal cycles. Macrodetritus presented a wide variation with concentration peaks probably related to external forces, such as winds, which enrich the ebb flow with leaf litter. DOC and POC fluxes depended primarily on tidal and net water fluxes, whereas MD fluxes were not. The magnitude of the DOC and POC fluxes varied with the area flooded at high tide, but not the MD fluxes. DOC was the major form of carbon export to Sepetiba Bay. During the four tidal cycles, the forest exported a total of 1,2 kg of organic carbon per ha, mostly as DOC (60 percent), followed by POC (22 percent) and MD (18 percent).

As concentrações e fluxos de carbono orgânico sob forma de carbono orgânico dissolvido (COD), carbono orgânico particulado (COP) e macrodetritos (MD) foram quantificadas durante 4 ciclos de maré em canal de maré na Floresta Experimental de Itacuruçá, Baía de Sepetiba, RJ, litoral sudeste do Brasil. COD foi a fração mais importante para a concentração total de carbono orgânico, contribuindo com 68 e 61 por cento da concentração total de C nos períodos de maré vazante e enchente, respectivamente. As concentrações de COD (vazante = 3.41 ± 0.57 mgC.L-1 e enchente = 3.55 ± 0.76 mgC.L-1) e COP (vazante = 1.73 ± 0.99 mgC.L-1 e enchente = 1.28 ± 0.45 mgC.L-1) foram similares durante os 4 ciclos de maré. A fração macrodetritos apresentou uma ampla variabilidade com máximos de concentração relacionados a fatores externos como ventos, que enriqueceram as águas de vazante com macrodetritos. A magnitude dos fluxos de COD e COP, mas não os de macrodetritos, relacionaram-se com os fluxos de água e a conseqüente área inundada pela maré. A fração COD foi a mais importante forma de exportação de carbono orgânico pelo manguezal. Durante os 4 ciclos monitorados, a floresta exportou um total de 1.2 kg de carbono orgânico, 60 por cento sob forma de COD, seguido pelo COP (22 por cento) e pela fração macrodetritos (18 por cento).